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AGENDA 21, CHAPTER 5



DEMOGRAPHIC DYNAMICS AND
 SUSTAINABILITY






NOTE:	This is a final, advanced version of a chapter of Agenda 21, as 
adopted by the Plenary in Rio de Janeiro, on June 14, 1992.  
This document will be further edited, translated into the 
official langauges, and published by the United Nations for the 
General Assembly this autumn.





........../2



5.1.  This chapter contains the following programme areas:

	(a)	Developing and disseminating knowledge concerning the links 
between demographic trends and factors and sustainable development;

	(b)	Formulating integrated national policies for environment and 
development, taking into account demographic trends and factors;

	(c) 	Implementing integrated, environment and development programmes 
at the local level, taking into account demographic trends and factors.


PROGRAMME AREAS

           A.  Developing and disseminating knowledge concerning the
               links between demographic trends and factors and
               sustainable development

Basis for action

5.2.  Demographic trends and factors and sustainable development have a 
synergistic relationship.

5.3.  The growth of world population and production combined with 
unsustainable consumption patterns places increasingly severe stress on the 
life-supporting capacities of our planet.  These interactive processes 
affect the use of land, water, air, energy and other resources.  Rapidly 
growing cities, unless well-managed, face major environmental problems.  
The increase in both the number and size of cities calls for greater 
attention to issues of local government and municipal management.  The 
human dimensions are key elements to consider in this intricate set of 
relationships and they should be adequately taken into consideration in 
comprehensive policies for sustainable development.  Such policies should 
address the linkages of demographic trends and factors, resource use, 
appropriate technology dissemination, and development.  Population policy 
should also recognize the role played by human beings in environmental and 
development concerns. There is a need to increase awareness of this issue 
among decision makers at all levels and to provide both better information 
on which to base national and international policies and a framework 
against which to interpret this information.

5.4.  There is a need to develop strategies to mitigate both the adverse 
impact on the environment of human activities and the adverse impact of 
environmental change on human populations.  The world's population is 
expected to exceed 8 billion by the year 2020.  Sixty percent of the 
world's population already live in coastal areas, while 65 per cent of 
cities with populations above 2.5 million are located along the world 
coasts; several of them are already at or below the present sea level.
Objectives

5.5.  The following objectives should be achieved as soon as practicable:

	(a)	To incorporate demographic trends and factors in the global 
analysis of environment and development issues;

	(b)	To develop a better understanding of the relationships among 
demographic dynamics, technology, cultural behaviour, natural resources and 
life support systems;

	(c)	To assess human vulnerability in ecologically sensitive areas 
and centres of population to determine the priorities for action at all 
levels, taking full account of community defined needs.

Activities

Research on the interaction between demographic trends and factors 
and sustainable development

5.6.  Relevant international, regional and national institutions should 
consider undertaking the following activities:

	(a)	Identifying the interactions between demographic processes, 
natural resources and life support systems, bearing in mind regional and 
subregional variations deriving from, inter alia, different levels of 
development;

	(b)	Integrating demographic trends and factors into the ongoing 
study of environmental change, using the expertise of international, 
regional and national research networks and of local communities, first, to 
study the human dimensions of environmental change and, second, to identify 
vulnerable areas;

	(c)	Identifying priority areas for action and developing strategies 
and programmes to mitigate the adverse impact of environmental change on 
human populations, and vice versa.

Means of implementation

(a)  Financing and cost evaluation

5.7.  The Conference secretariat has estimated the average total annual 
cost (1993-2000) of implementing the activities of this programme to be 
about $10 million from the international community on grant or concessional 
terms.  These are indicative and order of magnitude estimates only and have 
not been reviewed by governments.  Actual costs and financial terms, 
including any that are non-concessional, will depend upon, inter alia, the 
specific strategies and programmes governments decide upon for 
implementation.
(b)	Strengthening research programmes that integrate population, 
environment and development

5.8.  In order to integrate demographic analysis into a broader social 
science perspective on environment and development, interdisciplinary 
research should be increased. International institutions and networks of 
experts should enhance their scientific capacity, taking full account of 
community experience and knowledge, and should disseminate the experience 
gained in multidisciplinary approaches and in linking theory to action.

5.9.  Better modelling capabilities should be developed, identifying the 
range of possible outcomes of current human activities, especially the 
interrelated impact of demographic trends and factors, per capita resource 
use and wealth distribution, as well as the major migration flows that may 
be expected with increasing climatic events and cumulative environmental 
change that may destroy people's local livelihoods.  

(c)  Developing information and public awareness

5.10.  Socio-demographic information should be developed in a suitable 
format for interfacing with physical, biological and socio-economic data.  
Compatible spatial and temporal scales, cross-country and time-series 
information, as well as global behavioural indicators should be developed, 
learning from local communities' perceptions and attitudes.

5.11.  Awareness should be increased at all levels concerning the need to 
optimize the sustainable use of resources through efficient resource 
management, taking into account the development needs of the populations of 
developing countries.


5.12.  Awareness should be increased of the fundamental linkages between 
improving the status of women and demographic dynamics, particularly 
through women's access to education, primary and reproductive health care 
programmes, economic independence and their effective, equitable 
participation in all levels of decision-making. 

5.13.  Results of research concerned with sustainable development issues 
should be disseminated through technical reports, scientific journals, the 
media, workshops, forums or other means so that the information can be used 
by decision makers at all levels and increase public awareness.



(d)	Developing and/or enhancing institutional capacity and collaboration

5.14.  Collaboration and exchange of information should be increased 
between research institutions and international, regional and national 
agencies and all other sectors (including the private sector, local 
communities, non-governmental organizations and scientific institutions) 
from both the industrialized and developing countries, as appropriate.     

5.15.  Efforts should be intensified to enhance the capacities of national 
and local governments, the private sector and non-governmental 
organizations in developing countries to meet the growing needs for 
improved management of rapidly growing urban areas.



          B.  Formulating integrated national policies for environment
              and development, taking into account demographic trends
              and factors

Basis for action

5.16.  Existing plans for sustainable development have generally recognized 
demographic trends and factors as elements that have a critical influence 
on consumption patterns, production, lifestyles and long-term 
sustainability.  But in future, more attention will have to be given to 
these issues in general policy formulation and the design of development 
plans.  To do this, all countries will have to improve their own capacities 
to assess the environment and development implications of their demographic 
trends and factors.  They will also need to formulate and implement 
policies and action programmes where appropriate.  Policies should be 
designed to address the consequences of population growth built into 
population momentum, while at the same time incorporating measures to bring 
about demographic transition.  They should combine environmental concerns 
and population issues within a holistic view of development whose primary 
goals include the alleviation of poverty; secure livelihoods; good health; 
quality of life; improvement of the status and income of women and their 
access to schooling and professional training, as well as fulfilment of 
their personal aspirations; and empowerment of individuals and communities.  
Recognizing that large increases in the size and number of cities will 
occur in developing countries under any likely population scenario, greater 
attention should be given to preparing for the needs, in particular of 
women and children, for improved municipal management and local government.

Objective

5.17.  Full integration of population concerns into national planning, 
policy and decision-making processes should continue.  Population policies 
and programmes should be considered, with full recognition of women's 
rights.

Activities

5.18.  Governments and other relevant actors could, inter alia, undertake 
the following activities, with appropriate assistance from aid agencies, 
and report on their status of implementation to the International 
Conference on Population and Development to be held in 1994, especially to 
its committee on population and environment.

(a)	Assessing the implications of national demographic trends and factors

5.19.  The relationships between demographic trends and factors and 
environmental change and between environmental degradation and the 
components of demographic change should be analysed.

5.20.  Research should be conducted on how environmental factors interact 
with socio-economic factors as a cause of migration.

5.21.  Vulnerable population groups (such as rural landless workers, ethnic 
minorities, refugees, migrants, displaced people, women heads of household) 
whose changes in demographic structure may have specific impacts on 
sustainable development should be identified.

5.22.  An assessment should be made of the implications of the age 
structure of the population on resource demand and dependency burdens, 
ranging from educational expenses for the young to health care and support 
for the elderly, and on household income generation.

5.23.  An assessment should also be made of national population carrying 
capacity in the context of satisfaction of human needs and sustainable 
development, and special attention should be given to critical resources, 
such as water and land, and environmental factors, such as ecosystem health 
and biodiversity.

5.24.  The impact of national demographic trends and factors on the 
traditional livelihoods of indigenous groups and local communities, 
including changes in traditional land use because of internal population 
pressures, should be studied.

(b)  Building and strengthening a national information base

5.25.  National databases on demographic trends and factors and environment 
should be built and/or strengthened, disaggregating data by ecological 
region (ecosystem approach), and population/environment profiles should be 
established by region.

5.26.  Methodologies and instruments should be developed to identify areas 
where sustainability is, or may be, threatened by the environmental effects 
of demographic trends and factors, incorporating both current and projected 
demographic data linked to natural environmental processes.  

5.27.  Case-studies of local level responses by different groups to 
demographic dynamics should be developed, particularly in areas subject to 
environmental stress and in deteriorating urban centres.

5.28.  Population data should be disaggregated by, inter alia, sex and age 
in order to take into account the implications of the gender division of 
labour for the use and management of natural resources.

(c)  Incorporating demographic features into policies and plans

5.29.  In formulating human settlements policies, account should be taken 
of resource needs, waste production and ecosystem health.

5.30.  The direct and induced effects of demographic changes on environment 
and development programmes should, where appropriate, be integrated, and 
the impact on demographic features assessed.

5.31.  National population policy goals and programmes that are consistent 
with national environment and development plans for sustainability and in 
keeping with the freedom, dignity and personally held values of individuals 
should be established and implemented.

5.32.  Appropriate socio-economic policies for the young and the elderly, 
both in terms of family and state support systems, should be developed.

5.33.  Policies and programmes should be developed for handling the various 
types of migrations that result from or induce environmental disruptions, 
with special attention to women and vulnerable groups.

5.34.  Demographic concerns, including concerns for environmental migrants 
and displaced people, should be incorporated in the programmes for 
sustainable development of relevant international and regional 
institutions.

5.35.  National reviews should be conducted and the integration of 
population policies in national development and environment strategies 
should be monitored nationally.

Means of implementation

(a)  Financing and cost evaluation

5.36.  The Conference secretariat has estimated the average total annual 
cost (1993-2000) of implementing the activities of this programme to be 
about $90 million from the international community on grant or concessional 
terms.  These are indicative and order of magnitude estimates only and have 
not been reviewed by governments.  Actual costs and financial terms, 
including any that are non-concessional, will depend upon, inter alia, the 
specific strategies and programmes governments decide upon for 
implementation.

(b)	Raising awareness of demographic and sustainable development 
interactions

5.37.  Understanding of the interactions between demographic trends and 
factors and sustainable development should be increased in all sectors of 
society.  Stress should be placed on local and national action.  
Demographic and sustainable development education should be coordinated and 
integrated in both the formal and non-formal education sectors. Particular 
attention should be given to population literacy programmes, notably for 
women.  Special emphasis should be placed on the linkage between these 
programmes, primary environmental care and the provision of primary health 
care and services.


(c)  Strengthening institutions

5.38.  The capacity of national, regional and local structures to deal with 
issues relating to demographic trends and factors and sustainable 
development should be enhanced.  This would involve strengthening the 
relevant bodies responsible for population issues to enable them to 
elaborate policies consistent with the national prospects for sustainable 
development.  Cooperation among government, national research institutions, 
non-governmental organizations and local communities in assessing problems 
and evaluating policies should also be enhanced.
  
5.39.  The capacity of the relevant United Nations organs, organizations 
and bodies, international and regional intergovernmental bodies, 
non-governmental organizations and local communities should, as 
appropriate, be enhanced to help countries develop sustainable development 
policies on request and, as appropriate, provide assistance to 
environmental migrants and displaced people.

5.40.  Inter-agency support for national sustainable development policies 
and programmes should be improved through better coordination of population 
and environment activities.

(d)  Promoting human resource development

5.41.  The international and regional scientific institutions should assist 
Governments, upon request, to include concerns regarding the 
population/environment interactions at the global, ecosystem and 
micro-levels in the training of demographers and population and environment 
specialists.  Training should include research on linkages and ways to 
design integrated strategies.


            C.  Implementing integrated environment and development
                programmes at the local level, taking into account
                demographic trends and factors

Basis for action

5.42.  Population programmes are more effective when implemented together 
with appropriate cross-sectoral policies.  To attain sustainability at the 
local level, a new framework is needed that integrates demographic trends 
and factors with such factors as ecosystem health, technology and human 
settlements, and with socio-economic structures and access to resources.  
Population programmes should be consistent with socio-economic and 
environmental planning.  Integrated sustainable development programmes 
should closely correlate action on demographic trends and factors with 
resource management activities and development goals that meet the needs of 
the people concerned.

Objective

5.43.  Population programmes should be implemented along with natural 
resource management and development programmes at the local level that will 
ensure sustainable use of natural resources, improve the quality of life of 
the people and enhance environmental quality.

Activities

5.44.  Governments and local communities, including community-based women's 
organizations and national non-governmental organizations, consistent with 
national plans, objectives, strategies and priorities, could, inter alia, 
undertake the activities set out below with the assistance and cooperation 
of international organizations, as appropriate. Governments could share 
their experience in the implementation of Agenda 21 at the International 
Conference on Population and Development, to be held in 1994, especially 
its committee on population and environment.

(a)  Developing a framework for action

5.45.  An effective consultative process should be established and 
implemented with concerned groups of society where the formulation and 
decision-making of all components of the programmes are based on a 
nationwide consultative process drawing on community meetings, regional 
workshops and national seminars, as appropriate.  This process should 
ensure that views of women and men on needs, perspective and constraints 
are equally well reflected in the design of programmes, and that solutions 
are rooted in specific experience.  The poor and underprivileged should be 
priority groups in this process.

5.46.  Nationally determined policies for integrated and multifaceted 
programmes, with special attention to women, to the poorest people living 
in critical areas and to other vulnerable groups should be implemented, 
ensuring the involvement of groups with a special potential to act as 
agents for change and sustainable development.  Special emphasis should be 
placed on those programmes that achieve multiple objectives, encouraging 
sustainable economic development, and mitigating adverse impacts of 
demographic trends and factors, and avoiding long-term environmental 
damage.  Food security, access to secure tenure, basic shelter, and 
essential infrastructure, education, family welfare, women's reproductive 
health, family credit schemes, reforestation programmes, primary 
environmental care, women's employment should, as appropriate, be included 
among other factors.

5.47.  An analytical framework should be developed to identify 
complementary elements of sustainable development policies as well as the 
national mechanisms to monitor and evaluate their effects on population 
dynamics.

5.48.  Special attention should be given to the critical role of women in 
population/environment programmes and in achieving sustainable development.  
Projects should take advantage of opportunities to link social, economic 
and environmental gains for women and their families.  Empowerment of women 
is essential and should be assured through education, training and policies 
to accord and improve women's right and access to assets, human and civil 
rights, labour-saving measures, job opportunities and participation in 
decision-making.  Population/environment programmes must enable women to 
mobilize themselves to alleviate their burden and improve their capacity to 
participate in and benefit from socio-economic development.  Specific 
measures should be undertaken to close the gap between female and male 
illiteracy rates.

(b)	Supporting programmes that promote changes in demographic trends and 
factors towards sustainability

5.49.  Reproductive health programmes and services, should, as appropriate, 
be developed and enhanced to reduce maternal and infant mortality from all 
causes and enable women and men to fulfil their personal aspirations in 
terms of family size, in a way in keeping with their freedom and dignity 
and personally held values.

5.50.  Governments should take active steps to implement, as a matter of 
urgency, in accordance with country-specific conditions and legal systems, 
measures to ensure that women and men have the same right to decide freely 
and responsibly on the number and spacing of their children, to have access 
to the information, education and means, as appropriate, to enable them to 
exercise this right in keeping with their freedom, dignity and personally 
held values taking into account ethical and cultural considerations.

5.51.  Governments should take active steps to implement programmes to 
establish and strengthen preventive and curative health facilities that 
include women-centred, women-managed, safe and effective reproductive 
health care and affordable, accessible services, as appropriate, for the 
responsible planning of family size, in keeping with freedom, dignity and 
personally held values and taking into account ethical and cultural 
considerations.  Programmes should focus on providing comprehensive health 
care, including pre-natal care, education and information on health and 
responsible parenthood and should provide the opportunity for all women to 
breast-feed fully, at least during the first four months post-partum.  
Programmes should fully support women's productive and reproductive roles 
and well being, with special attention to the need for providing equal and 
improved health care for all children and the need to reduce the risk of 
maternal and child mortality and sickness.

5.52.  Consistent with national priorities, culturally based information 
and education programmes that transmit reproductive health messages to men 
and women that are easily understood should be developed.

(c)  Creating appropriate institutional conditions

5.53.  Constituencies and institutional conditions to facilitate the 
implementation of demographic activities should, as appropriate, be 
fostered.  This requires support and commitment from political, indigenous, 
religious and traditional authorities, the private sector and the national 
scientific community.  In developing these appropriate institutional 
conditions, countries should closely involve established national machinery 
for women.

5.54.  Population assistance should be coordinated with bilateral and 
multilateral donors to ensure that population needs and requirements of all 
developing countries are addressed, fully respecting the overall 
coordinating responsibility and the choice and strategies of the recipient 
countries.

5.55.  Coordination should be improved at local and international levels.  
Working practices should be enhanced in order to make optimum use of 
resources, draw on collective experience and improve the implementation of 
programmes.  UNFPA and other relevant agencies should strengthen the 
coordination of international cooperation activities with recipient and 
donor countries in order to ensure that adequate funding is available to 
respond to growing needs.

5.56.  Proposals should be developed for local, national and international 
population/environment programmes in line with specific needs for achieving 
sustainability.  Where appropriate, institutional changes must be 
implemented so that old-age security does not entirely depend on input from 
family members.


Means of implementation

(a)  Financing and cost evaluation

5.57.  The Conference secretariat has estimated the average total annual 
cost (1993-2000) of implementing the activities of this programme to be 
about $7 billion including about $3.5 billion from the international 
community on grant or concessional terms.  These are indicative and order 
of magnitude estimates only and have not been reviewed by governments.  
Actual costs and financial terms, including any that are non-concessional, 
will depend upon, inter alia, the specific strategies and programmes 
governments decide upon for implementation.

(b)	Research

5.58.  Research should be undertaken with a view to developing specific 
action programmes; it will be necessary to establish priorities between 
proposed areas of research.

5.59.  Socio-demographic research should be conducted on how populations 
respond to a changing environment.

5.60.  Understanding of socio-cultural and political factors that can 
positively influence acceptance of appropriate population policy 
instruments should be improved.

5.61.  Surveys of changes in needs for appropriate services relating to 
responsible planning of family size, reflecting variations among different 
socio-economic groups and variations in different geographical regions 
should be undertaken.

(c)  Human resource development and capacity-building

5.62.  The areas of human resource development and capacity-building, with 
particular attention to the education and training of women, are areas of 
critical importance and are a very high priority in the implementation of 
population programmes.

5.63.  Workshops to help programme and projects managers to link population 
programmes to other development and environmental goals should be 
conducted.

5.64.  Educational materials, including guides/workbooks for planners and 
decision makers and other actors of population/environment/development 
programmes, should be developed.

5.65.  Cooperation should be developed between Governments, scientific 
institutions and non-governmental organizations within the region, and 
similar institutions outside the region.  Cooperation with local 
organizations should be fostered in ordered to raise awareness, engage in 
demonstration projects and report on the experience gained.

5.66.  The recommendations contained in this chapter should in no way 
prejudice discussions at the International Conference on Population and 
Development in 1994, which will be the appropriate forum for dealing with 
population and development issues, taking into account the recommendations 
of the International Conference on Population, held in Mexico City in 1984, 
1/ and the Forward-looking Strategies for the Advancement of Women, 2/ 
adopted by the World Conference to Review and Appraise the Achievements of 
the United Decade for Women:  Equality, Development and Peace, held in 
Nairobi in 1985.


Notes

	1/	Report of the International Conference on Population, Mexico 
City, 6-14 August 1984 (United Nations publication, Sales No. E.84.XIII.8), 
chap. I.

	2/	Report of the World Conference to Review and Appraise the 
Achievements of the United Nations Decade for Women:  Equality, Development 
and Peace, Nairobi, 15-26 July 1985 (United Nations publication, Sales 
No. E.84.IV.10), chap. I, sect. A.
A21: Demographic Dynamics and 
Sustainability (Ch. 5), Advance 
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